Malaga vs Getafe: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Rosaleda, Málaga
The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Getafe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Malaga vs Getafe?
A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Malaga (2,053) and Getafe (2,060).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Malaga have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Getafe have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Ittihad FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | FK Partizan(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Alaves(away) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Malaga win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Getafe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 19, 2018 | Malaga 0-1 Getafe | La Liga |
| Jan 12, 2018 | Getafe 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Feb 5, 2016 | Malaga 3-0 Getafe | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2015 | Getafe 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Feb 28, 2015 | Malaga 3-2 Getafe | La Liga |
| Sep 28, 2014 | Getafe 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Malaga score 1.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Getafe score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malaga | 1.9 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Getafe | 0.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Malaga sit 19th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Getafe sit 8th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Getafe | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 19 | Malaga | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Malaga vs Getafe?
- The Footlab model makes Malaga the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Getafe.
- Where and when is Malaga vs Getafe played?
- Malaga vs Getafe is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Rosaleda, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.