Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián
The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Real Sociedad (2,098) and Athletic Club (2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | 1. FC Köln(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Real Sociedad win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Athletic Club win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic Club | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Athletic Club 0-1 Real Sociedad | Copa del Rey |
| Feb 1, 2026 | Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Real Sociedad 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| May 4, 2025 | Real Sociedad 0-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Athletic Club 1-0 Real Sociedad | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club on Mar 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Sociedad | 1.5 | 1.8 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Sociedad sit 19th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Athletic Club sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
- The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club.
- Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club played?
- Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.