Match

Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club: prediction and stats

La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Reale Arena, Donostia-San Sebastián

Real SociedadAthletic Club

The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?

A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Real Sociedad (2,098) and Athletic Club (2,052).

Real Sociedad win43 %
Draw25 %
Athletic Club win31 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Sociedad have 2 wins, 6 draws and 7 defeats; Athletic Club have 6, 2 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Sociedad
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 21, 2026Real Betis(away)0-1La Liga
Aug 15, 2026Chelsea(away)1-3Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 20261. FC Köln(away)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026Toulouse(away)1-2Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026Aston Villa(away)4-2Friendlies Clubs
Athletic Club
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 22, 2026Sevilla(home)1-3La Liga
Aug 21, 2026Zaragoza(away)1-3Friendlies Clubs
Aug 14, 2026Atalanta(away)0-1Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026Marseille(away)1-3Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026Burgos(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Real Sociedad win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Athletic Club win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 4, 2026Real Sociedad 1-0 Athletic ClubCopa del Rey
Feb 11, 2026Athletic Club 0-1 Real SociedadCopa del Rey
Feb 1, 2026Athletic Club 1-1 Real SociedadLa Liga
Nov 1, 2025Real Sociedad 3-2 Athletic ClubLa Liga
May 4, 2025Real Sociedad 0-0 Athletic ClubLa Liga
Nov 24, 2024Athletic Club 1-0 Real SociedadLa Liga

Last archived meeting: Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club on Mar 4, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Sociedad score 1.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Real Sociedad1.51.8012/159/15
Athletic Club2.31.557/1510/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Sociedad sit 19th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Athletic Club sit 20th (0 points from 1 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
19Real Sociedad1001010
20Athletic Club1001130

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club?
The Footlab model makes Real Sociedad the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 31% for Athletic Club.
Where and when is Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club played?
Real Sociedad vs Athletic Club is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Reale Arena, in the La Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: Real Sociedad and Athletic Club

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