Athletic Club vs Malaga: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 35Kick-off on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Malaga. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Malaga?
A very open match: only 0 Elo points separate Athletic Club (2,052) and Malaga (2,052).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Malaga have 6, 7 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Al-Arabi SC(home) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Athletic Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Malaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 25, 2018 | Athletic Club 2-1 Malaga | La Liga |
| Sep 23, 2017 | Malaga 3-3 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Mar 5, 2017 | Athletic Club 1-0 Malaga | La Liga |
| Oct 2, 2016 | Malaga 2-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Apr 17, 2016 | Malaga 0-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 6, 2015 | Athletic Club 0-0 Malaga | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Athletic Club vs Malaga on Feb 25, 2018
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Malaga score 1.7 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Malaga | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 20th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Malaga sit 16th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Malaga | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Malaga?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for Malaga.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Malaga played?
- Athletic Club vs Malaga is played on May 9, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.