Atletico Madrid vs Alaves: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Alaves. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 167-point Elo edge (2,241 vs 2,074).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Alaves have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico Madrid win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Alaves win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Alaves 1-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| May 3, 2025 | Alaves 0-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Alaves 2-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Atletico Madrid 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Alaves on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Alaves | 1.6 | 1.2 | 5 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Madrid sit 3rd in La Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Alaves sit 2nd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Alaves | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves played?
- Atletico Madrid vs Alaves is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.