Match

Atletico Madrid vs Alaves: prediction and stats

La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, Madrid

Atletico MadridAlaves

The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Alaves. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,849 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?

Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 216-point Elo edge (2,294 vs 2,079).

66%20%14%
Atletico Madrid winDrawAlaves win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Atletico Madrid

4-4-2
  1. 15J. David
  2. 11Ademola Lookman
  1. 20Giuliano Simeone Baldini
  2. 7Lee Kang-In
  3. 8Pablo Barrios Rivas
  4. 23Morten Hjulmand
  1. 21Cristian Romero
  2. 17Dávid Hancko
  3. 18Marc Pubill
  4. 14Marcos Llorente
  1. 13Jan Oblak

Alaves

5-3-2
  1. 15L. Boyé
  2. 11Toni Martínez
  1. 19Pablo Ibáñez
  2. 8Antonio Blanco
  3. 10Carles Aleñá
  1. 14N. Tenaglia
  2. 21A. Rebbach
  3. 17Jonny
  4. 2N. Valentini
  5. 16V. Koski
  1. 1Sivera

Computed on October 20, 2026 at 12:08 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Madrid have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Alaves have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atletico Madrid
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 17, 2026Espanyol(away)1-0La Liga
Oct 13, 2026Manchester United(home)2-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 10, 2026Alaves(away)2-1La Liga
Sep 20, 2026Real Madrid(home)2-1La Liga
Sep 16, 2026Osasuna(home)4-0La Liga
Alaves
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Celta Vigo(away)1-2La Liga
Oct 10, 2026Atletico Madrid(home)1-2La Liga
Sep 19, 2026Athletic Club(away)0-0La Liga
Sep 15, 2026Valencia(home)0-1La Liga
Sep 12, 2026Racing Santander(away)1-2La Liga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atletico Madrid wins, 2 draws, 1 Alaves win.

DateScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026Alaves 1-2 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Jan 18, 2026Atletico Madrid 1-0 AlavesLa Liga
Aug 30, 2025Alaves 1-1 Atletico MadridLa Liga
May 3, 2025Alaves 0-0 Atletico MadridLa Liga
Nov 23, 2024Atletico Madrid 2-1 AlavesLa Liga
Apr 21, 2024Alaves 2-0 Atletico MadridLa Liga

Last archived meeting: Alaves vs Atletico Madrid on Oct 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Atletico Madrid score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid2.01.159/1512/15
Alaves1.40.968/157/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Atletico Madrid sit 2nd in La Liga (22 points from 9 matches) and Alaves sit 7th (11 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
2Atletico Madrid971119822
7Alaves9324131011

A question about Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atletico Madrid vs Alaves?
The Footlab AI model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Alaves.
Where and when is Atletico Madrid vs Alaves played?
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cívitas Metropolitano, in the La Liga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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