Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rayo Vallecano wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,630 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,115) and Villarreal (2,176).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Villarreal
4-4-2- 22Ayoze Pérez
- 21T. Oluwaseyi
- 10Alberto Moleiro
- 14Santi Comesaña
- 11Ilias Akhomach
- 18P. Gueye
- 23Sergi Cardona
- 3A. Freeman
- 8J. Foyth
- 12Renato Veiga
- 25P. Gulácsi
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Villarreal have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Elche(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Napoli(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Levante(home) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Malaga(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano win, 2 draws, 3 Villarreal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Villarreal 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Villarreal 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Villarreal 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Villarreal | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 13th in La Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and Villarreal sit 10th (9 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 13 | 9 |
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
A question about Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.