Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Vallecas, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Villarreal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Rayo Vallecano (2,096) and Villarreal (2,175).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rayo Vallecano have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Villarreal have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Alaves(home) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Ipswich(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Feyenoord(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Levante(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lens(away) | 1-3 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rayo Vallecano win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Villarreal win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 2-0 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Villarreal 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Rayo Vallecano 0-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Villarreal 1-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Villarreal 3-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Villarreal | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rayo Vallecano score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Villarreal score 2.0 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Villarreal | 2.0 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rayo Vallecano sit 15th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Villarreal sit 9th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Villarreal | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 |
| 15 | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal?
- The Footlab model makes Rayo Vallecano the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Villarreal.
- Where and when is Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal played?
- Rayo Vallecano vs Villarreal is played on May 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Vallecas, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.