Mali vs Cape Verde Islands: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 1Kick-off on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade 26 Mars, Bamako
The Footlab model makes Mali the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Cape Verde Islands. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mali vs Cape Verde Islands?
A very open match: only 46 Elo points separate Mali (1,644) and Cape Verde Islands (1,598).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mali have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Cape Verde Islands have 6, 8 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Comoros(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Spain(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Bermuda(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Serbia(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Mali score 1.0 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Cape Verde Islands score 1.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 1.0 | 0.6 | 7 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Cape Verde Islands | 1.7 | 0.8 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mali sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (14 points from 6 matches) and Cape Verde Islands sit 4th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mali | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 14 |
| 4 | Cape Verde Islands | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mali vs Cape Verde Islands?
- The Footlab model makes Mali the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for Cape Verde Islands.
- Where and when is Mali vs Cape Verde Islands played?
- Mali vs Cape Verde Islands is played on September 23, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade 26 Mars, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.