Mali vs Rwanda: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade 26 Mars, Bamako
The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 11% for Rwanda. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mali vs Rwanda?
Mali starts as the favourite with a 166-point Elo edge (1,660 vs 1,494).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mali vs Rwanda
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mali
4-2-3-1- 17L. Sinayoko
- 8M. Sangaré
- 7N. Dorgeles
- 10K. Doumbia
- 12A. Tia
- 23A. Dieng
- 14N. Gassama
- 25O. Camara
- 2H. Traoré
- 15D. Guindo
- 16D. Diarra
Rwanda
4-2-3-1- 7Abeddy Biramahire
- 22J. Kwizera
- 15Bonheur Mugisha
- 13L. Mickels
- 20J. Mickels
- 11Kevin Muhire
- 5A. Mutsinzi
- 25P. Kavita
- 2Claude Niyomugabo
- 16Clément Niyigena
- 1F. Ntwari
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:40 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mali have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Rwanda have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Liberia(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Iran(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Russia(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Jan 9, 2026 | Senegal(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Liberia(home) | 3-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 30, 2026 | Estonia(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Series |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Grenada(home) | 4-0 | FIFA Series |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Mali wins, 0 draws, 0 Rwanda wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 11, 2021 | Rwanda 0-3 Mali | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 1, 2021 | Mali 1-0 Rwanda | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Mali score 1.1 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rwanda score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali | 1.1 | 0.7 | 6 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Rwanda | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mali sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (6 points from 2 matches) and Rwanda sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rwanda | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Mali | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
A question about Mali vs Rwanda?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mali vs Rwanda?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mali the favourite at 67%, against 22% for a draw and 11% for Rwanda.
- Where and when is Mali vs Rwanda played?
- Mali vs Rwanda is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade 26 Mars, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.