Manchester City vs Arsenal: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueMatchday 23Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Etihad Stadium, Manchester
The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Arsenal. The most likely score is 1-1. If Manchester City wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 5,780 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Manchester City vs Arsenal?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Manchester City (2,270) and Arsenal (2,323).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Manchester City vs Arsenal
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Manchester City
4-2-3-1- 9E. Haaland
- 7I. Ndiaye
- 17E. Fernández
- 5E. Anderson
- 11J. Doku
- 10R. Cherki
- 45A. Khusanov
- 3Rúben Dias
- 6M. Guéhi
- 24J. Gvardiol
- 1G. Donnarumma
Arsenal
4-2-3-1- 29K. Havertz
- 41D. Rice
- 20N. Madueke
- 8M. Ødegaard
- 39Bruno Guimarães
- 17C. Tzolis
- 15E. Konsa
- 6Gabriel Magalhães
- 33R. Calafiori
- 12J. Timber
- 1David Raya
Computed on November 14, 2026 at 07:12 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Manchester City have 10 wins, 1 draw and 4 defeats; Arsenal have 12, 2 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | RB Leipzig(away) | 3-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Brighton(home) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Aston Villa(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Nov 4, 2026 | Slavia Praha(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Everton(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Manchester City wins, 2 draws, 2 Arsenal wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arsenal 3-0 Manchester City | Community Shield |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Manchester City 2-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Arsenal 0-2 Manchester City | League Cup |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Arsenal 1-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Arsenal 5-1 Manchester City | Premier League |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Manchester City 2-2 Arsenal | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Arsenal vs Manchester City on Aug 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Manchester City score 2.5 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Arsenal score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester City | 2.5 | 1.4 | 5 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Arsenal | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Manchester City sit 3rd in Premier League (21 points from 10 matches) and Arsenal sit 1st (27 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Arsenal | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 5 | 27 |
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | 21 |
A question about Manchester City vs Arsenal?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Manchester City vs Arsenal?
- The Footlab AI model makes Manchester City the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Arsenal.
- Where and when is Manchester City vs Arsenal played?
- Manchester City vs Arsenal is played on January 30, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Etihad Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.