Mantova vs Padova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Danilo Martelli, Mantova
The Footlab model makes Mantova the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Padova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mantova vs Padova?
A very open match: only 30 Elo points separate Mantova (1,865) and Padova (1,835).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mantova have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Padova have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Carrarese(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lazio(away) | 2-0 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Carpi(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Legnago Salus(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Alcione(home) | 6-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pisa(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Coppa Italia |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Monza(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cittadella(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mantova win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Padova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | Padova 1-2 Mantova | Serie B |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Mantova 1-0 Padova | Serie B |
| Jan 8, 2024 | Padova 0-5 Mantova | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 4, 2023 | Mantova 1-1 Padova | Serie C - Girone A |
| Apr 22, 2023 | Mantova 1-3 Padova | Serie C - Girone A |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Padova 1-1 Mantova | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Mantova score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Padova score 1.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mantova | 2.0 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Padova | 1.1 | 1.6 | 5 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mantova sit 3rd in Serie B (3 points from 1 matches) and Padova sit 6th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Mantova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Padova | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mantova vs Padova?
- The Footlab model makes Mantova the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 17% for Padova.
- Where and when is Mantova vs Padova played?
- Mantova vs Padova is played on December 27, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Danilo Martelli, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.