Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueMatchday 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Murang'a SEAL. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mara Sugar wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,511 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,500) and Murang'a SEAL (1,481).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Murang'a SEAL
Not enough data to predict the Murang'a SEAL lineup.
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 05:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Murang'a SEAL have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Migori Youth(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-3 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(home) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 1, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Nairobi United(home) | 3-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 25, 2026 | 3K(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Posta Rangers FC(home) | 5-1 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mara Sugar wins, 3 draws, 3 Murang'a SEAL wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL 2-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Mara Sugar 1-3 Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Murang'a SEAL 1-0 Mara Sugar | Shield Cup |
| Jun 15, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-0 Murang'a SEAL | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Murang'a SEAL 1-1 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| May 28, 2023 | Mara Sugar 0-0 Murang'a SEAL | Super League |
Last archived meeting: Murang'a SEAL vs Mara Sugar on May 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Murang'a SEAL score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Murang'a SEAL | 1.5 | 1.9 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 6th in FKF Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Murang'a SEAL sit 8th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Mara Sugar | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 9 |
| 8 | Murang'a SEAL | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL?
- The Footlab AI model makes Mara Sugar the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Murang'a SEAL.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL played?
- Mara Sugar vs Murang'a SEAL is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.