AFC Leopards vs Mathare United: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Nyayo National Stadium, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AFC Leopards vs Mathare United?
AFC Leopards starts as the favourite with a 134-point Elo edge (1,592 vs 1,459).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AFC Leopards vs Mathare United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AFC Leopards
Not enough data to predict the AFC Leopards lineup.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AFC Leopards have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; Mathare United have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bidco United(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Homeboyz(away) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 13, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 2-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 AFC Leopards wins, 0 draws, 2 Mathare United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Mathare United 4-1 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 2, 2025 | AFC Leopards 2-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| May 14, 2025 | AFC Leopards 3-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Mathare United 0-4 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 12, 2023 | Mathare United 1-0 AFC Leopards | FKF Premier League |
| Jan 18, 2023 | AFC Leopards 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Mathare United vs AFC Leopards on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AFC Leopards score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mathare United score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFC Leopards | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Mathare United | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AFC Leopards sit 12th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and Mathare United sit 11th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Mathare United | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 12 | AFC Leopards | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
A question about AFC Leopards vs Mathare United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AFC Leopards vs Mathare United?
- The Footlab AI model makes AFC Leopards the favourite at 46%, against 31% for a draw and 23% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is AFC Leopards vs Mathare United played?
- AFC Leopards vs Mathare United is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Nyayo National Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.