Police vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Stade Dr Issoufou Joseph Conombo, Ouagadougou
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 40%, against 33% for a draw and 27% for Police. The most likely score is 0-0. If GOR Mahia wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,509 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Police vs GOR Mahia?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Police (1,596) and GOR Mahia (1,691).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Police vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Police
Not enough data to predict the Police lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 07:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Police have 6 wins, 8 draws and 1 defeat; GOR Mahia have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Migori Youth(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Tusker(away) | 1-2 | Shield Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Homeboyz(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 24, 2026 | Nairobi United(away) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | APS Bomet(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(home) | 4-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-5 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pyramids FC(home) | 0-2 | CAF Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Police wins, 3 draws, 1 GOR Mahia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | GOR Mahia 1-1 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Police 0-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Jun 22, 2025 | GOR Mahia 1-1 Police | FKF Premier League |
| Dec 14, 2024 | Police 1-0 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Police 3-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Nov 5, 2023 | GOR Mahia 0-0 Police | FKF Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Police score 1.0 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Police | 1.0 | 0.5 | 8 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.3 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Police sit 9th in FKF Premier League (1 point from 1 match) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Police | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Police vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Police vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 40%, against 33% for a draw and 27% for Police.
- Where and when is Police vs GOR Mahia played?
- Police vs GOR Mahia is played on December 5, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Dr Issoufou Joseph Conombo, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.