Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 15Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Antonio Lorenzo Cuevas, Marbella
The Footlab AI model makes Ciudad de Lucena the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Marbella. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ciudad de Lucena wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,572 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Ciudad de Lucena starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,997 vs 1,806).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Marbella
4-3-3- 19E. Ohemeng
- 24D. Selma
- 11Pablo Moreno
- 22J. Rodriguez
- 36D. Revuelta
- 35I. Gonzalez
- 23Alberto Escassi
- 4Adri Castellano
- 15Gabri Clemente
- 31D. Pineda
- 1Manu García
Ciudad de Lucena
Not enough data to predict the Ciudad de Lucena lineup.
Computed on October 26, 2026 at 02:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbella have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Ciudad de Lucena have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Xerez(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Estepona(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Badajoz(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Real Betis II(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Puente Genil(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Estepona(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Xerez(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Don Benito(home) | 4-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Puente Genil(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Antoniano(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Marbella score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ciudad de Lucena score 2.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbella | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Ciudad de Lucena | 2.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbella sit 15th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 8 matches) and Ciudad de Lucena sit 3rd (15 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 8 | 15 |
| 15 | Marbella | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
A question about Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ciudad de Lucena the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Marbella.
- Where and when is Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena played?
- Marbella vs Ciudad de Lucena is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Antonio Lorenzo Cuevas, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
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