Marbelli vs UD San Pedro: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 24Kick-off on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for UD San Pedro. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marbelli vs UD San Pedro?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Marbelli (1,777) and UD San Pedro (1,741).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marbelli have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; UD San Pedro have 5, 8 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Granada II(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Huétor Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | UD Melilla II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Torreperogil(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Marbelli win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 UD San Pedro win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | UD San Pedro 1-0 Marbelli | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Marbelli 1-0 UD San Pedro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: UD San Pedro vs Marbelli on Jan 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; UD San Pedro score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marbelli | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| UD San Pedro | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marbelli sit 6th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (51 points from 34 matches) and UD San Pedro sit 8th (49 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Marbelli | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 36 | 28 | 51 |
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marbelli vs UD San Pedro?
- The Footlab model makes Marbelli the favourite at 46%, against 30% for a draw and 24% for UD San Pedro.
- Where and when is Marbelli vs UD San Pedro played?
- Marbelli vs UD San Pedro is played on February 14, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Feb 14, 2027Huétor VegavsAtletico de Marbella
- Feb 14, 2027Mancha RealvsMalaga City
- Feb 14, 2027MotrilvsCantoria
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