Marine vs Southport: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Marine Travel Arena, Crosby, Merseyside
The Footlab model makes Marine the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Southport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Marine vs Southport?
A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Marine (1,791) and Southport (1,824).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Marine have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Southport have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Chorley(home) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hereford(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Macclesfield(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bedford Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buxton(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hebburn Town(away) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Marine win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Southport win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Southport 2-1 Marine | National League - North |
| Dec 26, 2025 | Marine 4-2 Southport | National League - North |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Marine 1-0 Southport | National League - North |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Southport 0-0 Marine | National League - North |
| Jul 27, 2021 | Southport 2-0 Marine | Friendlies Clubs |
| Dec 15, 2020 | Marine 0-1 Southport | FA Trophy |
How many goals should we expect?
Marine score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Southport score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marine | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Southport | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Marine sit 18th in National League - North (3 points from 4 matches) and Southport sit 11th (5 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Southport | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
| 18 | Marine | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Marine vs Southport?
- The Footlab model makes Marine the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Southport.
- Where and when is Marine vs Southport played?
- Marine vs Southport is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Marine Travel Arena, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.