Southport vs Chester: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 24Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The BIG HELP Stadium, Southport, Merseyside
The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Southport. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Southport vs Chester?
Chester starts as the favourite with a 101-point Elo edge (1,926 vs 1,824).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Southport have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Chester have 11, 2 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bedford Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Hednesford Town(away) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Buxton(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hebburn Town(away) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chorley(away) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Crewe(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Southport win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Chester win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Chester 1-2 Southport | National League - North |
| Nov 11, 2025 | Southport 2-2 Chester | National League - North |
| Apr 18, 2025 | Southport 0-1 Chester | National League - North |
| Jan 1, 2025 | Chester 0-0 Southport | National League - North |
| Mar 12, 2024 | Chester 0-1 Southport | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2023 | Southport 0-2 Chester | National League - North |
How many goals should we expect?
Southport score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chester score 1.3 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Southport | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Chester | 1.3 | 0.3 | 11 | 3/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Southport sit 11th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Chester sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 12 |
| 11 | Southport | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Southport vs Chester?
- The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Southport.
- Where and when is Southport vs Chester played?
- Southport vs Chester is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The BIG HELP Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.