Hereford vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 23Kick-off on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Edgar Street Athletic Ground, Hereford, Herefordshire
The Footlab AI model makes Hereford the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Hereford wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,461 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Hereford vs Merthyr Town?
On Elo ratings, Hereford has 1,895 points and Merthyr Town 1,915.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Hereford vs Merthyr Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Hereford
Not enough data to predict the Hereford lineup.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hereford have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Merthyr Town have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Bedford Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Stafford Rangers(away) | 2-3 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 6-0 | National League - North |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 3-0 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Truro City(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(away) | 0-0 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Hereford win, 1 draw, 0 Merthyr Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Hereford 3-0 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Merthyr Town 2-2 Hereford | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Hereford vs Merthyr Town on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Hereford score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hereford | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Hereford sit 2nd in National League - North (23 points from 11 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 18th (14 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Hereford | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 6 | 23 |
| 18 | Merthyr Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 12 | 14 |
A question about Hereford vs Merthyr Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Hereford vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Hereford the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Hereford vs Merthyr Town played?
- Hereford vs Merthyr Town is played on December 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Edgar Street Athletic Ground, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.