Maritimo vs FC Porto: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Marítimo, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Maritimo vs FC Porto?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,461 Elo points against 2,068, a 394-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Maritimo vs FC Porto
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 10Martín Tejón
- 35B. Limbombe
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 4Rafael Fernandes
- 13Alfonso Pastor
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 7William
- 19André Silva
- 10Gabri Veiga
- 13P. Rosario
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 20Alberto Baio
- 4J. Kiwior
- 5J. Bednarek
- 74Francisco Moura
- 99Diogo Costa
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Maritimo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; FC Porto have 13, 0 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Maritimo win, 1 draw, 4 FC Porto wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2023 | Maritimo 0-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2022 | FC Porto 5-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 30, 2022 | FC Porto 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2021 | Maritimo 1-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 22, 2021 | Maritimo 1-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 3, 2020 | FC Porto 2-3 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Maritimo score 1.2 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; FC Porto score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maritimo | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| FC Porto | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Maritimo sit 11th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and FC Porto sit 1st (21 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 3 | 21 |
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
A question about Maritimo vs FC Porto?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Maritimo vs FC Porto?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 63%, against 22% for a draw and 15% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Maritimo vs FC Porto played?
- Maritimo vs FC Porto is played on October 10, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Marítimo, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.