Rio Ave vs Nacional: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, Vila do Conde
The Footlab AI model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Nacional. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rio Ave wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rio Ave vs Nacional?
On Elo ratings, Rio Ave has 2,065 points and Nacional 2,031.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Rio Ave vs Nacional
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Rio Ave
4-2-3-1- 11J. Blesa
- 7Diogo Bezerra
- 44T. Nikitscher
- 5A. Ntoi
- 79M. Patricio
- 30R. Galčík
- 23F. Petrasso
- 24Pedro Amaral
- 20João Tomé
- 3S. Garcia
- 99E. van der Gouw
Nacional
4-1-4-1- 99Pablo Ruan
- 6Matheus Dias
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 52Wesley Gasolina
- 7M. Jensen
- 21W. Kokolo
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 34Léo Santos
- 5José Gomes
- 1Renato Bellucci
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:49 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rio Ave have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Nacional have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Rio Ave win, 3 draws, 2 Nacional wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | Nacional 4-0 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 17, 2025 | Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| May 10, 2025 | Nacional 3-3 Rio Ave | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 29, 2024 | Rio Ave 2-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Rio Ave 1-1 Nacional | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 10, 2022 | Nacional 2-0 Rio Ave | Segunda Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Rio Ave score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Ave | 1.1 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rio Ave sit 16th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 7 matches) and Nacional sit 15th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
| 16 | Rio Ave | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Rio Ave vs Nacional?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rio Ave vs Nacional?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rio Ave the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Rio Ave vs Nacional played?
- Rio Ave vs Nacional is played on October 11, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.