Benfica vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Guimaraes?
Benfica starts as the favourite with a 278-point Elo edge (2,358 vs 2,080).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; Guimaraes have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Aarhus(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 7-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Heart Of Midlothian(home) | 6-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chaves(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Benfica win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Guimaraes win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Benfica 3-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Benfica 4-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.1 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 1.4 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.1 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
| Guimaraes | 1.4 | 1.2 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 6th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 2 matches) and Guimaraes sit 9th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Benfica | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 4 |
| 9 | Guimaraes | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab model makes Benfica the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Guimaraes played?
- Benfica vs Guimaraes is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.