Benfica vs Guimaraes: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), Lisboa
The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 77%, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Guimaraes. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Benfica vs Guimaraes?
Benfica is a heavy favourite: 2,466 Elo points against 2,155, a 311-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Benfica vs Guimaraes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Benfica
4-2-3-1- 14V. Pavlidis
- 27Rafa
- 25G. Prestianni
- 36João Palhinha
- 10H. Sudakov
- 18L. Barreiro
- 44Tomás Araújo
- 2C. Lenglet
- 26S. Dahl
- 6A. Bah
- 24Samuel Soares
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 11Gustavo
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 5A. Sidibé
- 48O. Zych
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Benfica have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Guimaraes have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | AC Milan(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 3-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Benfica wins, 1 draw, 0 Guimaraes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Benfica 3-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Guimaraes 0-3 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Benfica 1-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | Guimaraes 2-2 Benfica | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Benfica 4-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Benfica score 3.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Guimaraes score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica | 3.2 | 0.9 | 5 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Guimaraes | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Benfica sit 2nd in Primeira Liga (16 points from 7 matches) and Guimaraes sit 14th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Benfica | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 7 | 16 |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Benfica vs Guimaraes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Benfica vs Guimaraes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Benfica the favourite at 77%, against 15% for a draw and 8% for Guimaraes.
- Where and when is Benfica vs Guimaraes played?
- Benfica vs Guimaraes is played on October 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica (da Luz), in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.