Famalicao vs Alverca: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 12, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC)Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão
The Footlab AI model makes Famalicao the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Alverca. The most likely score is 1-1. If Famalicao wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Famalicao vs Alverca?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Famalicao (2,210) and Alverca (2,132).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Famalicao vs Alverca
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Famalicao
4-2-3-1- 70G. Koutsias
- 14Mathias De Amorim
- 7Sorriso
- 8Marcos Peña
- 23Gil Dias
- 21Tamás Szücs
- 17Rodrigo Pinheiro
- 28Pedro Francisco
- 4F. van Breemen
- 15Víctor Rofino
- 25L. Carević
Alverca
3-4-3- 22Figueiredo
- 10Chiquinho
- 19D. Camara
- 55Francisco Chissumba
- 6D. Gui
- 35Rayan
- 25Ian Luccas
- 12I. James
- 21Sergi Gómez
- 14S. Baseya
- 31Matheus Mendes
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:10 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Famalicao have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Alverca have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 4-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sporting CP(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | GIL Vicente(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Santa Clara(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Famalicao wins, 0 draws, 1 Alverca win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Famalicao 1-0 Alverca | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Alverca 1-0 Famalicao | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Alverca 1-2 Famalicao | Taça de Portugal |
How many goals should we expect?
Famalicao score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Alverca score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Famalicao | 0.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Alverca | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Famalicao sit 13th in Primeira Liga (7 points from 7 matches) and Alverca sit 10th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Alverca | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 8 |
| 13 | Famalicao | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 7 |
A question about Famalicao vs Alverca?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Famalicao vs Alverca?
- The Footlab AI model makes Famalicao the favourite at 45%, against 30% for a draw and 25% for Alverca.
- Where and when is Famalicao vs Alverca played?
- Famalicao vs Alverca is played on October 12, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC) at Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.