Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,005) and GIL Vicente (2,050).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; GIL Vicente have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Amarante(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Moreirense win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 GIL Vicente win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2025 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | GIL Vicente 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | GIL Vicente 1-0 Moreirense | Taça de Portugal |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Moreirense 3-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Moreirense on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.0 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 15th in Primeira Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 8th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 15 | Moreirense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente played?
- Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.