Moreirense vs GIL Vicente: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 8Kick-off on October 9, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC)Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, Moreira de Cónegos
The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Moreirense. The most likely score is 1-1. If GIL Vicente wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Moreirense (2,114) and GIL Vicente (2,133).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Moreirense
4-2-3-1- 79L. Vonić
- 23N. John
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
- 65Guilherme Liberato
- 10Kiko Bondoso
- 19Tiago Andrade
- 66Gilberto Batista
- 27Kiko
- 26Maracás
- 76Dinis Pinto
- 13André Ferreira
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1- 23Héctor Hernández
- 20Gil Pinto Martins
- 77Murilo
- 12A. Lausen
- 86Diogo Ferreira Prioste
- 10Santi García
- 39Jonathan Buatu
- 4M. Elimbi Gilbert
- 47Ricardo Esgaio
- 45David Moreira
- 30Lucão
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 07:39 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Moreirense have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; GIL Vicente have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 4, 2026 | FC Porto(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Maritimo(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Benfica(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Famalicao(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 24, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Moreirense wins, 1 draw, 3 GIL Vicente wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 25, 2026 | GIL Vicente 2-2 Moreirense | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Moreirense 1-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2025 | GIL Vicente 2-0 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 6, 2025 | GIL Vicente 0-1 Moreirense | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 12, 2025 | GIL Vicente 1-0 Moreirense | Taça de Portugal |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Moreirense 3-2 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: GIL Vicente vs Moreirense on Jul 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Moreirense score 1.3 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; GIL Vicente score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 1.3 | 1.9 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| GIL Vicente | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Moreirense sit 12th in Primeira Liga (8 points from 7 matches) and GIL Vicente sit 9th (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | GIL Vicente | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| 12 | Moreirense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Moreirense vs GIL Vicente?
- The Footlab AI model makes GIL Vicente the favourite at 43%, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Moreirense.
- Where and when is Moreirense vs GIL Vicente played?
- Moreirense vs GIL Vicente is played on October 9, 2026 at 05:45 PM (UTC) at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.