Guimaraes vs Maritimo: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, Guimarães
The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Maritimo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Guimaraes wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
A very open match: only 87 Elo points separate Guimaraes (2,155) and Maritimo (2,068).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guimaraes vs Maritimo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1- 9A. Jakupovic
- 11Gustavo
- 44L. Doucet
- 7O. Camara
- 20Samu
- 8Gonçalo Nogueira
- 13João Mendes
- 28Thiago Balieiro
- 23T. Strata
- 5A. Sidibé
- 48O. Zych
Maritimo
4-2-3-1- 17Adrián Butzke
- 14Raphael Guzzo
- 18V. Danilović
- 6Rodrigo Andrade
- 10Martín Tejón
- 35B. Limbombe
- 2Igor Julião
- 23Paulo Henrique
- 44Romain Correia
- 4Rafael Fernandes
- 13Alfonso Pastor
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:42 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guimaraes have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Maritimo have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Academico Viseu(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Casa Pia(home) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | SC Braga(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Nacional(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 1-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Moreirense(away) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Guimaraes wins, 1 draw, 0 Maritimo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2023 | Maritimo 1-2 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 13, 2022 | Guimaraes 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 13, 2022 | Maritimo 0-1 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 22, 2021 | Guimaraes 2-1 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
| May 16, 2021 | Maritimo 0-0 Guimaraes | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 31, 2021 | Guimaraes 1-0 Maritimo | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: Maritimo vs Guimaraes on Apr 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Guimaraes score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Maritimo score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guimaraes | 1.1 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
| Maritimo | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guimaraes sit 14th in Primeira Liga (5 points from 7 matches) and Maritimo sit 11th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Maritimo | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 8 |
| 14 | Guimaraes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guimaraes the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Maritimo.
- Where and when is Guimaraes vs Maritimo played?
- Guimaraes vs Maritimo is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.