Mash'al vs Olmaliq: prediction and stats
Super LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev, Mubarek
The Footlab model makes Olmaliq the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Mash'al. The most likely score is 0-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mash'al vs Olmaliq?
Olmaliq starts as the favourite with a 255-point Elo edge (1,721 vs 1,466).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mash'al have 1 wins, 1 draws and 13 defeats; Olmaliq have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Andijan(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Qizilqum(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Xorazm(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sogdiana(home) | 1-3 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Olmaliq(away) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Dinamo Samarqand(home) | 0-1 | Super League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Buxoro(away) | 0-2 | Super League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bunyodkor(away) | 3-2 | Super League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Nasaf(home) | 1-2 | Super League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Mash'al(home) | 2-1 | Super League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Mash'al win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Olmaliq win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2026 | Olmaliq 2-1 Mash'al | Super League |
| Nov 30, 2025 | Olmaliq 2-0 Mash'al | Super League |
| Jul 5, 2025 | Mash'al 0-1 Olmaliq | Super League |
| Apr 15, 2024 | Olmaliq 0-1 Mash'al | Cup |
| Oct 15, 2021 | Olmaliq 3-2 Mash'al | Super League |
| May 19, 2021 | Mash'al 2-1 Olmaliq | Super League |
How many goals should we expect?
Mash'al score 0.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Olmaliq score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mash'al | 0.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Olmaliq | 1.7 | 1.4 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mash'al sit 16th in Super League (0 points from 11 matches) and Olmaliq sit 8th (16 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Olmaliq | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 28 |
| 8 | Olmaliq | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 11 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| 16 | Mash'al | 18 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 32 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mash'al vs Olmaliq?
- The Footlab model makes Olmaliq the favourite at 61%, against 24% for a draw and 15% for Mash'al.
- Where and when is Mash'al vs Olmaliq played?
- Mash'al vs Olmaliq is played on October 16, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Bahrom Vafoyev, in the Super League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.