Mathare United vs GOR Mahia: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Moi International Sports Centre, Nairobi
The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Mathare United. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mathare United vs GOR Mahia?
GOR Mahia starts as the favourite with a 220-point Elo edge (1,678 vs 1,458).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mathare United vs GOR Mahia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mathare United
Not enough data to predict the Mathare United lineup.
GOR Mahia
4-3-3- 40C. Ochieng Oduor
- 30S. Kapen
- 22B. Ochieng
- 6E. Morrison
- 10A. Otieno
- 26P. Otieno
- 2G. Ochieng
- 5Alphonce Omija
- 15S. Owino
- 19Shariff Sirengo
- 35K. Omondi Onyango
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mathare United have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; GOR Mahia have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Bandari(home) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mara Sugar(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 10, 2026 | APS Bomet(home) | 0-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Sofapaka(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2026 | Pyramids FC(away) | 1-5 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Pyramids FC(home) | 0-2 | CAF Champions League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Rayon Sports(away) | 1-2 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al Hilal Omdurman(home) | 1-1 | CECAFA Club Cup |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Al-Haras Al-Jumhuri(home) | 1-0 | CECAFA Club Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mathare United win, 0 draws, 5 GOR Mahia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | GOR Mahia 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2025 | Mathare United 0-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 8, 2025 | Mathare United 1-2 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 28, 2024 | GOR Mahia 4-0 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| May 3, 2023 | GOR Mahia 2-1 Mathare United | FKF Premier League |
| Mar 1, 2023 | Mathare United 2-1 GOR Mahia | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: GOR Mahia vs Mathare United on Feb 28, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mathare United score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; GOR Mahia score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathare United | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| GOR Mahia | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mathare United sit 14th in FKF Premier League (41 points from 34 matches) and GOR Mahia sit 1st (69 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GOR Mahia | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 50 | 22 | 69 |
| 14 | Mathare United | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 31 | 35 | 41 |
A question about Mathare United vs GOR Mahia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mathare United vs GOR Mahia?
- The Footlab AI model makes GOR Mahia the favourite at 51%, against 29% for a draw and 20% for Mathare United.
- Where and when is Mathare United vs GOR Mahia played?
- Mathare United vs GOR Mahia is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Moi International Sports Centre, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.