Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz: prediction and stats
FKF Premier LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)Green Stadium, Awendo
The Footlab AI model makes Homeboyz the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar. The most likely score is 1-1. If Homeboyz wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,050 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Mara Sugar (1,484) and Homeboyz (1,534).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Mara Sugar
Not enough data to predict the Mara Sugar lineup.
Homeboyz
Not enough data to predict the Homeboyz lineup.
Computed on October 23, 2026 at 04:23 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mara Sugar have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Homeboyz have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 19, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(home) | 2-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 11, 2026 | 3K(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Murang'a SEAL(away) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 27, 2026 | GOR Mahia(home) | 0-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | Mathare United(home) | 0-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Ulinzi Stars(home) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| Oct 14, 2026 | Mombasa Elite(away) | 1-0 | FKF Premier League |
| May 31, 2026 | Police(away) | 1-1 | FKF Premier League |
| May 23, 2026 | Kariobangi Sharks(away) | 2-2 | FKF Premier League |
| May 16, 2026 | AFC Leopards(home) | 1-2 | FKF Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Mara Sugar win, 2 draws, 1 Homeboyz win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Homeboyz 3-3 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Mara Sugar 0-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Homeboyz 2-0 Mara Sugar | FKF Premier League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Mara Sugar 3-0 Homeboyz | FKF Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Homeboyz vs Mara Sugar on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mara Sugar score 0.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Homeboyz score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mara Sugar | 0.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Homeboyz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 7/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mara Sugar sit 2nd in FKF Premier League (4 points from 2 matches) and Homeboyz sit 5th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Mara Sugar | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 5 | Homeboyz | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
A question about Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz?
- The Footlab AI model makes Homeboyz the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Mara Sugar.
- Where and when is Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz played?
- Mara Sugar vs Homeboyz is played on November 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at Green Stadium, in the FKF Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.