Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi played?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto

Matsumoto Yamaga

Renofa Yamaguchi

The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Renofa Yamaguchi. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701) and Renofa Yamaguchi (1,717).

Matsumoto Yamaga win44 %

Draw26 %

Renofa Yamaguchi win29 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Renofa Yamaguchi have 6, 3 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

Renofa Yamaguchi
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Nara Club(away)	1-3	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Kagoshima United(away)	1-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	FC Ryukyu(home)	1-0	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Parceiro Nagano(away)	0-1	J3 League
Jun 6, 2026	Yokohama FC(away)	1-2	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 5 draw(s), 0 Renofa Yamaguchi win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 13, 2024	Matsumoto Yamaga 3-3 Renofa Yamaguchi	J-League Cup
Nov 21, 2021	Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi	J2 League
Feb 28, 2021	Renofa Yamaguchi 0-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Nov 1, 2020	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi	J2 League
Sep 9, 2020	Renofa Yamaguchi 2-2 Matsumoto Yamaga	J2 League
Sep 15, 2018	Matsumoto Yamaga 0-0 Renofa Yamaguchi	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Mar 13, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Renofa Yamaguchi score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15
Renofa Yamaguchi	1.5	1.5	2	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Renofa Yamaguchi sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Renofa Yamaguchi	3	1	0	2	2	4	3
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi?: The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Renofa Yamaguchi.
Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi played?: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Renofa Yamaguchi is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.