Where and when is Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC played?

Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sagamihara Gion Stadium, Sagamihara

Sagamihara

Tochigi SC

The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Tochigi SC. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC?

A very open match: only 41 Elo points separate Sagamihara (1,768) and Tochigi SC (1,727).

Sagamihara win48 %

Draw26 %

Tochigi SC win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sagamihara have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Tochigi SC have 4, 7 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Sagamihara
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	2-1	J3 League
Aug 15, 2026	Thespakusatsu Gunma(away)	4-1	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jun 6, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	3-0	J2/J3 League
May 30, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	4-3	J2/J3 League

Tochigi SC
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 19, 2026	Urayasu(home)	2-0	Emperor Cup
Aug 15, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(away)	0-0	J3 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	3-2	J3 League
Jun 7, 2026	Kitakyushu(home)	2-1	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sagamihara win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Tochigi SC win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 19, 2026	Tochigi SC 0-2 Sagamihara	J2/J3 League
Mar 8, 2026	Sagamihara 4-0 Tochigi SC	J2/J3 League
Jul 20, 2025	Tochigi SC 1-2 Sagamihara	J3 League
Feb 22, 2025	Sagamihara 1-0 Tochigi SC	J3 League
Aug 9, 2021	Sagamihara 0-0 Tochigi SC	J2 League
Apr 11, 2021	Tochigi SC 0-0 Sagamihara	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Tochigi SC vs Sagamihara on Apr 19, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tochigi SC score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Sagamihara	1.8	1.5	6	8/15	8/15
Tochigi SC	1.3	1.1	5	8/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Sagamihara sit 3rd in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Tochigi SC sit 8th (5 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Sagamihara	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
8	Tochigi SC	3	1	2	0	5	4	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC?: The Footlab model makes Sagamihara the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Tochigi SC.
Where and when is Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC played?: Sagamihara vs Tochigi SC is played on October 24, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sagamihara Gion Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.