Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara played?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara is played on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara: prediction and stats

J3 LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Sunpro Alwin Stadium, Matsumoto

Matsumoto Yamaga

Sagamihara

The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Sagamihara. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?

A very open match: only 69 Elo points separate Matsumoto Yamaga (1,699) and Sagamihara (1,768).

Matsumoto Yamaga win41 %

Draw25 %

Sagamihara win34 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Matsumoto Yamaga have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Sagamihara have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Matsumoto Yamaga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	2-2	J3 League
Aug 16, 2026	Biwako Shiga(home)	2-3	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Kochi United(away)	0-0	J3 League
Jul 25, 2026	Ventforet Kofu(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 6, 2026	Nara Club(home)	0-2	J2/J3 League

Sagamihara
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Kanazawa(home)	2-1	J3 League
Aug 15, 2026	Thespakusatsu Gunma(away)	4-1	J3 League
Aug 8, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	0-0	J3 League
Jun 6, 2026	Roasso Kumamoto(home)	3-0	J2/J3 League
May 30, 2026	Fujieda MYFC(home)	4-3	J2/J3 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Sagamihara win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Oct 19, 2025	Sagamihara 1-0 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Mar 23, 2025	Matsumoto Yamaga 2-0 Sagamihara	J3 League
Aug 17, 2024	Matsumoto Yamaga 3-2 Sagamihara	J3 League
Jun 22, 2024	Sagamihara 3-2 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Oct 28, 2023	Sagamihara 0-2 Matsumoto Yamaga	J3 League
Jun 3, 2023	Matsumoto Yamaga 5-3 Sagamihara	J3 League

Last archived meeting: Sagamihara vs Matsumoto Yamaga on Oct 19, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sagamihara score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Matsumoto Yamaga	1.5	1.2	4	8/15	8/15
Sagamihara	1.8	1.5	6	8/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th in J3 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Sagamihara sit 3rd (7 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Sagamihara	3	2	1	0	6	2	7
16	Matsumoto Yamaga	3	0	2	1	4	5	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara?: The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Sagamihara.
Where and when is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara played?: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sagamihara is played on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Sunpro Alwin Stadium, in the J3 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.