Nara Club vs Matsumoto Yamaga: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Konoike Athletic Stadium, Nara, Nara Prefecture
The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Nara Club. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nara Club vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Nara Club (1,664) and Matsumoto Yamaga (1,701).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nara Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Matsumoto Yamaga have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kagoshima United(home) | 1-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ehime FC(away) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Matsumoto Yamaga(away) | 2-0 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ehime FC(home) | 2-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kochi United(away) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Ventforet Kofu(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Nara Club(home) | 0-2 | J2/J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Nara Club win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Matsumoto Yamaga win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Matsumoto Yamaga 0-2 Nara Club | J2/J3 League |
| Jul 12, 2025 | Matsumoto Yamaga 3-0 Nara Club | J3 League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Nara Club 2-1 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Sep 29, 2024 | Matsumoto Yamaga 1-1 Nara Club | J3 League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Nara Club 2-2 Matsumoto Yamaga | J3 League |
| Dec 2, 2023 | Matsumoto Yamaga 0-1 Nara Club | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Matsumoto Yamaga vs Nara Club on Jun 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Nara Club score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Matsumoto Yamaga score 1.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nara Club | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 1.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nara Club sit 14th in J3 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Matsumoto Yamaga sit 16th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Nara Club | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 3 |
| 16 | Matsumoto Yamaga | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nara Club vs Matsumoto Yamaga?
- The Footlab model makes Matsumoto Yamaga the favourite at 38%, against 24% for a draw and 37% for Nara Club.
- Where and when is Nara Club vs Matsumoto Yamaga played?
- Nara Club vs Matsumoto Yamaga is played on November 25, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Konoike Athletic Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Nov 25, 2026Kamatamare SanukivsGainare Tottori
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- Nov 25, 2026FC RyukyuvsRoasso Kumamoto
- Nov 25, 2026Parceiro NaganovsKagoshima United
- Nov 25, 2026SagamiharavsEhime FC
- Nov 25, 2026Biwako ShigavsKochi United