Renofa Yamaguchi vs Thespakusatsu Gunma: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 6Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ishin Me-Life Stadium, Yamaguchi
The Footlab model makes Renofa Yamaguchi the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Thespakusatsu Gunma. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Renofa Yamaguchi vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
A very open match: only 54 Elo points separate Renofa Yamaguchi (1,717) and Thespakusatsu Gunma (1,663).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Renofa Yamaguchi have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Thespakusatsu Gunma have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 1-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 1-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Ryukyu(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Yokohama FC(away) | 1-2 | J2/J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(away) | 1-4 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Biwako Shiga(home) | 2-3 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tohoku Gakuin University(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sagamihara(home) | 1-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kagoshima United(away) | 0-1 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Renofa Yamaguchi win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Thespakusatsu Gunma win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 16, 2024 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 0-1 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
| Jun 12, 2024 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-1 Renofa Yamaguchi | Emperor Cup |
| Apr 14, 2024 | Renofa Yamaguchi 4-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Renofa Yamaguchi 1-0 Thespakusatsu Gunma | J2 League |
| May 7, 2023 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 2-1 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
| Sep 24, 2022 | Thespakusatsu Gunma 1-6 Renofa Yamaguchi | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Thespakusatsu Gunma vs Renofa Yamaguchi on Jun 16, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Renofa Yamaguchi score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Thespakusatsu Gunma score 1.7 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renofa Yamaguchi | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Thespakusatsu Gunma | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Renofa Yamaguchi sit 13th in J3 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Thespakusatsu Gunma sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Renofa Yamaguchi | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 20 | Thespakusatsu Gunma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Renofa Yamaguchi vs Thespakusatsu Gunma?
- The Footlab model makes Renofa Yamaguchi the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Thespakusatsu Gunma.
- Where and when is Renofa Yamaguchi vs Thespakusatsu Gunma played?
- Renofa Yamaguchi vs Thespakusatsu Gunma is played on September 12, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ishin Me-Life Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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