Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón, Mazarrón
The Footlab model makes Mazarrón FC the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for SFC Minerva. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva?
Mazarrón FC starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,796 vs 1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mazarrón FC have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; SFC Minerva have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 16, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 10, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Águilas II(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(away) | 3-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | El Palmar(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Unión Molinense(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Santa Cruz(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santomera(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Mazarrón FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 SFC Minerva win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Mazarrón FC 0-1 SFC Minerva | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | SFC Minerva 1-2 Mazarrón FC | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 1, 2019 | SFC Minerva 1-2 Mazarrón FC | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mazarrón FC score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; SFC Minerva score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mazarrón FC | 1.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| SFC Minerva | 0.9 | 1.3 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mazarrón FC sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (55 points from 34 matches) and SFC Minerva sit 10th (44 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Mazarrón FC | 34 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 50 | 33 | 55 |
| 10 | SFC Minerva | 34 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 28 | 39 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva?
- The Footlab model makes Mazarrón FC the favourite at 64%, against 23% for a draw and 13% for SFC Minerva.
- Where and when is Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva played?
- Mazarrón FC vs SFC Minerva is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Mazarrón, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.