Águilas II vs Unión Molinense: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Rubial, Águilas
The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Unión Molinense. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Águilas II vs Unión Molinense?
A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Águilas II (1,819) and Unión Molinense (1,823).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Águilas II have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Unión Molinense have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | UCAM Murcia II(home) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palmar(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Unión Molinense(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 17, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 10, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | SFC Minerva(away) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Águilas II win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Unión Molinense win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Águilas II 2-1 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Unión Molinense 4-2 Águilas II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Águilas II 0-1 Unión Molinense | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Dec 18, 2024 | Unión Molinense 1-1 Águilas II | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Águilas II vs Unión Molinense on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Águilas II score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Unión Molinense score 1.3 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Águilas II | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Unión Molinense | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Águilas II sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (52 points from 34 matches) and Unión Molinense sit 3rd (59 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Unión Molinense | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 59 |
| 7 | Águilas II | 34 | 14 | 10 | 10 | 47 | 42 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Águilas II vs Unión Molinense?
- The Footlab model makes Águilas II the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Unión Molinense.
- Where and when is Águilas II vs Unión Molinense played?
- Águilas II vs Unión Molinense is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Rubial, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.