Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio San Miguel, Pulpí
The Footlab model makes Atlético Pulpileño the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Santomera. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera?
A very open match: only 96 Elo points separate Atlético Pulpileño (1,779) and Santomera (1,683).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Pulpileño have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Santomera have 4, 0 and 11.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mazarrón FC(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 3, 2026 | El Palmar(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Balsicas Atlético(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Unión Molinense(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Santa Cruz(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cieza(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Olímpico Totana(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Real Murcia II(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Yeclano II(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Atlético Pulpileño win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Santomera win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 4, 2026 | Santomera 0-2 Atlético Pulpileño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Nov 22, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño 3-2 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Jun 8, 2025 | Santomera 0-1 Atlético Pulpileño | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 31, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño 0-0 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño 0-1 Santomera | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Santomera 0-0 Atlético Pulpileño | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
Last archived meeting: Santomera vs Atlético Pulpileño on Apr 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Pulpileño score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Santomera score 1.1 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Pulpileño | 0.9 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 2/15 |
| Santomera | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Pulpileño sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 (50 points from 34 matches) and Santomera sit 15th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atlético Pulpileño | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 30 | 29 | 50 |
| 15 | Santomera | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 38 | 64 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Pulpileño the favourite at 56%, against 27% for a draw and 17% for Santomera.
- Where and when is Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera played?
- Atlético Pulpileño vs Santomera is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio San Miguel, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.