Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Group 13 - 5Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero, Alcantarilla
The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Alcantarilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz?
Santa Cruz starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,760 vs 1,591).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alcantarilla have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Santa Cruz have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 11, 2025 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 4, 2025 | Águilas II(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 27, 2025 | Lorca Deportiva(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Santomera(home) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 13, 2025 | UCAM Murcia II(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Cartagena LU II(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| May 2, 2026 | Real Murcia II(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Yeclano II(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 18, 2026 | SFC Minerva(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Atlético Pulpileño(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 |
How many goals should we expect?
Alcantarilla score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Cruz score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 41% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alcantarilla | 0.5 | 1.6 | 6 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Santa Cruz | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 34 | 15 | 6 | 13 | 37 | 34 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Cruz the favourite at 49%, against 28% for a draw and 23% for Alcantarilla.
- Where and when is Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz played?
- Alcantarilla vs Santa Cruz is played on October 4, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Polideportivo Municipal Ángel Sornichero, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 13.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 41% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.