Merelbeke vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar: prediction and stats
First Amateur DivisionVV - 13Kick-off on November 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark Molenkouter, Merelbeke
The Footlab model makes Merelbeke the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merelbeke vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar?
A very open match: only 35 Elo points separate Merelbeke (1,777) and Lyra-Lierse Berlaar (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merelbeke have 5 wins, 1 draws and 9 defeats; Lyra-Lierse Berlaar have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | K. Lierse S.K.(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Gent(home) | 1-6 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Ninove(away) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Roeselare Daisel(home) | 1-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 2-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Houtvenne(home) | 4-3 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven II(away) | 0-2 | First Amateur Division |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Thes Sport(home) | 1-2 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Knokke(away) | 0-1 | First Amateur Division |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Hoogstraten(home) | 2-0 | First Amateur Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Merelbeke win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 1-3 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Merelbeke 2-4 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar | First Amateur Division |
| Feb 28, 2025 | Merelbeke 0-0 Lyra-Lierse Berlaar | First Amateur Division |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Lyra-Lierse Berlaar 4-1 Merelbeke | First Amateur Division |
Last archived meeting: Lyra-Lierse Berlaar vs Merelbeke on Dec 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Merelbeke score 1.4 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lyra-Lierse Berlaar score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merelbeke | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Lyra-Lierse Berlaar | 1.3 | 1.9 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merelbeke sit 14th in First Amateur Division (11 points from 12 matches) and Lyra-Lierse Berlaar sit 3rd (23 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Lyra-Lierse Berlaar | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 22 | 15 | 23 |
| 14 | Merelbeke | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merelbeke vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar?
- The Footlab model makes Merelbeke the favourite at 40%, against 24% for a draw and 36% for Lyra-Lierse Berlaar.
- Where and when is Merelbeke vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar played?
- Merelbeke vs Lyra-Lierse Berlaar is played on November 22, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark Molenkouter, in the First Amateur Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.