Where and when is Mérida AD vs Cacereño played?

Mérida AD vs Cacereño is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Mérida AD vs Cacereño: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida

Mérida AD

Cacereño

The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Cacereño. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mérida AD vs Cacereño?

A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,871) and Cacereño (1,921).

Mérida AD win37 %

Draw28 %

Cacereño win35 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Cacereño have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mérida AD
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Alcorcon(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 7, 2026	Leganes(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 28, 2026	Al-Nassr(home)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Benfica B(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Cacereño
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Unionistas de Salamanca(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Gévora(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Villanovense(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	CF Talavera(home)	1-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Zamora(away)	2-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Mérida AD win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Cacereño win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 22, 2026	Mérida AD 1-0 Cacereño	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 20, 2025	Cacereño 2-1 Mérida AD	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 12, 2023	Cacereño 0-0 Mérida AD	Friendlies Clubs
Apr 24, 2022	Cacereño 1-2 Mérida AD	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Dec 5, 2021	Mérida AD 0-1 Cacereño	Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
Aug 22, 2021	Cacereño 0-3 Mérida AD	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Mérida AD vs Cacereño on Feb 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mérida AD score 0.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Cacereño score 1.4 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Mérida AD	0.9	1.9	1	8/15	7/15
Cacereño	1.4	1.1	4	9/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mérida AD sit 10th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (52 points from 38 matches) and Cacereño sit 15th (44 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	Mérida AD	38	14	10	14	47	53	52
15	Cacereño	38	10	14	14	42	49	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Cacereño?: The Footlab model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Cacereño.
Where and when is Mérida AD vs Cacereño played?: Mérida AD vs Cacereño is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.