Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Chester played?

Merthyr Town vs Chester is played on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Merthyr Town vs Chester: prediction and stats

National League - NorthNational League North - 35Kick-off on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil

Merthyr Town

Chester

The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chester?

A very open match: only 53 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,873) and Chester (1,926).

Merthyr Town win33 %

Draw25 %

Chester win42 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Chester have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Merthyr Town
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	South Shields(away)	1-1	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	AFC Telford United(home)	2-2	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	Spennymoor Town(away)	1-2	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Hednesford Town(home)	2-0	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Worcester City(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs

Chester
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Spalding United(home)	1-0	National League - North
Aug 18, 2026	Darlington 1883(away)	1-0	National League - North
Aug 15, 2026	King's Lynn Town(home)	2-0	National League - North
Aug 8, 2026	Chorley(away)	2-1	National League - North
Aug 1, 2026	Crewe(home)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Merthyr Town win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Chester win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 10, 2026	Merthyr Town 1-2 Chester	National League - North
Oct 4, 2025	Chester 2-2 Merthyr Town	National League - North

Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs Chester on Mar 10, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chester score 1.3 and concede 0.3. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Merthyr Town	1.5	1.5	3	10/15	11/15
Chester	1.3	0.3	11	3/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Chester sit 1st (12 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	4	4	0	0	6	1	12
12	Merthyr Town	4	1	2	1	6	5	5

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Chester?: The Footlab model makes Chester the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for Merthyr Town.
Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Chester played?: Merthyr Town vs Chester is played on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.