Merthyr Town vs Chester: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 35Kick-off on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Chester the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chester wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,810 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Chester?
Chester starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,962 vs 1,806).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Chester
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Chester
Not enough data to predict the Chester lineup.
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 02:52 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 2 wins, 7 draws and 6 defeats; Chester have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Marine(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bedford Town(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-4 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Worksop Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Merthyr Town win, 1 draw, 1 Chester win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 8, 2026 | Chester 0-1 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Mar 10, 2026 | Merthyr Town 1-2 Chester | National League - North |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Chester 2-2 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Chester vs Merthyr Town on Sep 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 0.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chester score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 0.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Chester | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 20th in National League - North (15 points from 14 matches) and Chester sit 5th (23 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Chester | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 17 | 13 | 23 |
| 20 | Merthyr Town | 14 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 19 | 15 |
A question about Merthyr Town vs Chester?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Chester?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chester the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Chester played?
- Merthyr Town vs Chester is played on February 23, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Feb 23, 2027Oxford CityvsAFC Telford United
- Feb 23, 2027HerefordvsHarborough Town
- Feb 23, 2027Brackley TownvsBuxton
- Feb 23, 2027Bedford TownvsWorksop Town
- Feb 23, 2027MarinevsSouth Shields
- Feb 23, 2027Spalding UnitedvsSpennymoor Town
- Feb 23, 2027Hednesford TownvsKing's Lynn Town