Chorley vs Merthyr Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 36Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Victory Park, Chorley, Lancashire
The Footlab AI model makes Chorley the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Merthyr Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chorley wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,788 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chorley vs Merthyr Town?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Chorley (1,859) and Merthyr Town (1,906).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chorley vs Merthyr Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chorley
Not enough data to predict the Chorley lineup.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 03:31 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chorley have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Merthyr Town have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Worcester City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
| Oct 10, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Barton Town Old Boys(away) | 4-1 | FA Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Spalding United(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Rylands(away) | 1-0 | FA Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Marine(home) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Sep 22, 2026 | Truro City(away) | 0-2 | FA Cup |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Truro City(home) | 1-1 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Chorley win, 1 draw, 1 Merthyr Town win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 29, 2026 | Merthyr Town 1-1 Chorley | National League - North |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Merthyr Town 2-3 Chorley | National League - North |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Chorley 0-2 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Merthyr Town vs Chorley on Aug 29, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Chorley score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Merthyr Town score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chorley | 1.7 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Merthyr Town | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chorley sit 10th in National League - North (17 points from 11 matches) and Merthyr Town sit 15th (15 points from 12 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Chorley | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 18 | 17 |
| 15 | Merthyr Town | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 13 | 15 |
A question about Chorley vs Merthyr Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chorley vs Merthyr Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chorley the favourite at 43%, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Merthyr Town.
- Where and when is Chorley vs Merthyr Town played?
- Chorley vs Merthyr Town is played on February 27, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Victory Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.