Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 22Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Spennymoor Town. The most likely score is 1-1. If Merthyr Town wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,488 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town?
Merthyr Town starts as the favourite with a 153-point Elo edge (1,843 vs 1,690).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Merthyr Town
Not enough data to predict the Merthyr Town lineup.
Spennymoor Town
4-3-3- 16Ben Pollock
- 11J. Mondal
- 36Cameron Salkeld
- 29M. Dolan
- 7M. Heaney
- 28Corey McKeown
- 3D. Jones
- 2O. Dyson
- 4M. Hancox
- 6Ben Beals
- 13Ryan Johnson
Computed on November 12, 2026 at 09:37 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Spennymoor Town have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | Hebburn Town(home) | 4-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 3-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 7, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - North |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Chorley(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Oct 27, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Darlington 1883(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 1-3 | FA Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Merthyr Town wins, 0 draws, 3 Spennymoor Town wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town 2-1 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Merthyr Town 2-3 Spennymoor Town | National League - North |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Spennymoor Town 6-4 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spennymoor Town score 1.3 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 7/15 |
| Spennymoor Town | 1.3 | 1.9 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 17th in National League - North (19 points from 16 matches) and Spennymoor Town sit 24th (10 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Merthyr Town | 16 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 22 | 23 | 19 |
| 24 | Spennymoor Town | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 29 | 10 |
A question about Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town?
- The Footlab AI model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for Spennymoor Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town played?
- Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.