Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 22Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Penydarren Park, Merthyr Tydfil
The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Spennymoor Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town?
A very open match: only 71 Elo points separate Merthyr Town (1,873) and Spennymoor Town (1,802).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Merthyr Town have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Spennymoor Town have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | South Shields(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Telford United(home) | 2-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hednesford Town(home) | 2-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Worcester City(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oxford City(home) | 1-4 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Scarborough Athletic(away) | 0-3 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Merthyr Town(home) | 2-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Gateshead(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Merthyr Town win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Spennymoor Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Spennymoor Town 2-1 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Merthyr Town 2-3 Spennymoor Town | National League - North |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Spennymoor Town 6-4 Merthyr Town | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Spennymoor Town vs Merthyr Town on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Merthyr Town score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Spennymoor Town score 1.2 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merthyr Town | 1.5 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Spennymoor Town | 1.2 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Merthyr Town sit 12th in National League - North (5 points from 4 matches) and Spennymoor Town sit 17th (4 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Merthyr Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| 17 | Spennymoor Town | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town?
- The Footlab model makes Merthyr Town the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Spennymoor Town.
- Where and when is Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town played?
- Merthyr Town vs Spennymoor Town is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Penydarren Park, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.