Morecambe vs Harborough Town: prediction and stats
National League - NorthNational League North - 22Kick-off on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mazuma Stadium, Morecambe, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Harborough Town the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Morecambe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Morecambe vs Harborough Town?
Harborough Town is a heavy favourite: 1,977 Elo points against 1,659 — a 317-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Morecambe have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Harborough Town have 8, 7 and 0.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Radcliffe(away) | 1-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | South Shields(home) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Harborough Town(away) | 0-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(home) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Barrow(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Darlington 1883(home) | 4-2 | National League - North |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Oxford City(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Morecambe(home) | 1-0 | National League - North |
| Aug 8, 2026 | King's Lynn Town(away) | 1-1 | National League - North |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Stamford(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Southern Central |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Morecambe win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Harborough Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Harborough Town 1-0 Morecambe | National League - North |
Last archived meeting: Harborough Town vs Morecambe on Aug 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Morecambe score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Harborough Town score 2.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Morecambe | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Harborough Town | 2.0 | 0.9 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Morecambe sit 24th in National League - North (1 points from 4 matches) and Harborough Town sit 7th (8 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Harborough Town | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 8 |
| 24 | Morecambe | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Morecambe vs Harborough Town?
- The Footlab model makes Harborough Town the favourite at 60%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Morecambe.
- Where and when is Morecambe vs Harborough Town played?
- Morecambe vs Harborough Town is played on December 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mazuma Stadium, in the National League - North.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 19, 2026ChorleyvsSouth Shields
- Dec 19, 2026Oxford CityvsSpalding United
- Dec 19, 2026AFC Telford UnitedvsWorksop Town
- Dec 19, 2026MarinevsHereford
- Dec 19, 2026BuxtonvsSouthport
- Dec 19, 2026Merthyr TownvsSpennymoor Town
- Dec 19, 2026RadcliffevsMacclesfield
- Dec 19, 2026Scarborough AthleticvsHednesford Town