Mgarr United vs Tarxien Rainbows: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)MFA Centenary Stadium, Ta'Qali
The Footlab model makes Tarxien Rainbows the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Mgarr United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mgarr United vs Tarxien Rainbows?
Tarxien Rainbows starts as the favourite with a 113-point Elo edge (1,344 vs 1,231).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mgarr United have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Tarxien Rainbows have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Zurrieq(away) | 2-4 | Challenge League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Gudja United(home) | 0-2 | Challenge League |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Santa Lucía(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Vittoriosa Stars(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Zebbug Rangers(away) | 2-0 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| May 5, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Apr 30, 2026 | Sliema Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Birkirkara(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Zabbar St. Patrick(home) | 3-3 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 1 Mgarr United win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Tarxien Rainbows win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2025 | Mgarr United 2-3 Tarxien Rainbows | Challenge Cup |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Tarxien Rainbows 0-0 Mgarr United | Challenge League |
| Dec 15, 2024 | Tarxien Rainbows 0-2 Mgarr United | Challenge League |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Mgarr United 0-4 Tarxien Rainbows | Challenge League |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Tarxien Rainbows 3-1 Mgarr United | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Mgarr United vs Tarxien Rainbows on Apr 19, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Mgarr United score 1.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Tarxien Rainbows score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mgarr United | 1.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Tarxien Rainbows | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mgarr United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 41 | 33 | 33 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mgarr United vs Tarxien Rainbows?
- The Footlab model makes Tarxien Rainbows the favourite at 46%, against 24% for a draw and 30% for Mgarr United.
- Where and when is Mgarr United vs Tarxien Rainbows played?
- Mgarr United vs Tarxien Rainbows is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at MFA Centenary Stadium, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.