Santa Lucía vs Vittoriosa Stars: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Luxol Sports Ground, Pembroke
The Footlab model makes Santa Lucía the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Vittoriosa Stars. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Santa Lucía vs Vittoriosa Stars?
Santa Lucía starts as the favourite with a 190-point Elo edge (1,271 vs 1,081).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Santa Lucía have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Vittoriosa Stars have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | Mtarfa(away) | 5-1 | Challenge League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zurrieq(home) | 3-0 | Challenge League |
| Apr 6, 2026 | Mgarr United(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Marsa(home) | 0-1 | Challenge League |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Vittoriosa Stars(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2026 | Gudja United(home) | 2-3 | Challenge League |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Zebbug Rangers(home) | 0-1 | Challenge League |
| Apr 1, 2026 | Mtarfa(away) | 1-0 | Challenge League |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Mgarr United(away) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
| Mar 8, 2026 | Santa Lucía(home) | 1-1 | Challenge League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Santa Lucía win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Vittoriosa Stars win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Vittoriosa Stars 1-1 Santa Lucía | Challenge League |
| Dec 13, 2025 | Vittoriosa Stars 0-2 Santa Lucía | Challenge League |
| Apr 7, 2019 | Vittoriosa Stars 1-3 Santa Lucía | Challenge League |
| Dec 9, 2018 | Santa Lucía 0-0 Vittoriosa Stars | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Vittoriosa Stars vs Santa Lucía on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Santa Lucía score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Vittoriosa Stars score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santa Lucía | 1.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Vittoriosa Stars | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Santa Lucía sit 3rd in Challenge League (30 points from 22 matches) and Vittoriosa Stars sit 5th (21 points from 22 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Santa Lucía | 22 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 40 | 31 | 30 |
| 5 | Vittoriosa Stars | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 33 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Santa Lucía vs Vittoriosa Stars?
- The Footlab model makes Santa Lucía the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Vittoriosa Stars.
- Where and when is Santa Lucía vs Vittoriosa Stars played?
- Santa Lucía vs Vittoriosa Stars is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Luxol Sports Ground, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.