Pietà Hotspurs vs Naxxar Lions: prediction and stats
Challenge LeagueRegular Season - 1Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Victor Tedesco Stadium, Hamrun
The Footlab model makes Naxxar Lions the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Pietà Hotspurs. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pietà Hotspurs vs Naxxar Lions?
Naxxar Lions starts as the favourite with a 135-point Elo edge (1,453 vs 1,318).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pietà Hotspurs have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Naxxar Lions have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | St. Andrews(home) | 2-2 | Challenge League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Sirens(away) | 4-3 | Challenge League |
| Apr 4, 2026 | Fgura United(away) | 4-0 | Challenge League |
| Mar 17, 2026 | Melita(home) | 0-1 | Challenge Cup |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Birzebbuga(away) | 2-2 | Challenge League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Mosta(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| May 2, 2026 | Marsaxlokk(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Gzira United(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Hamrun Spartans(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Valletta FC(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Pietà Hotspurs win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Naxxar Lions win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2021 | Pietà Hotspurs 2-1 Naxxar Lions | Challenge League |
| Feb 9, 2020 | Pietà Hotspurs 0-4 Naxxar Lions | Challenge League |
| Sep 21, 2019 | Naxxar Lions 1-1 Pietà Hotspurs | Challenge League |
| Jan 15, 2017 | Naxxar Lions 4-0 Pietà Hotspurs | Challenge League |
| Sep 11, 2016 | Pietà Hotspurs 2-0 Naxxar Lions | Challenge League |
Last archived meeting: Pietà Hotspurs vs Naxxar Lions on Jan 11, 2021
How many goals should we expect?
Pietà Hotspurs score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Naxxar Lions score 1.1 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pietà Hotspurs | 1.9 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Naxxar Lions | 1.1 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Pietà Hotspurs | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 34 | 35 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pietà Hotspurs vs Naxxar Lions?
- The Footlab model makes Naxxar Lions the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Pietà Hotspurs.
- Where and when is Pietà Hotspurs vs Naxxar Lions played?
- Pietà Hotspurs vs Naxxar Lions is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Victor Tedesco Stadium, in the Challenge League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.