Mirassol vs Gremio: result 2-1 and analysis
Serie ARegular Season - 19Kick-off on July 17, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, São Paulo
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What was the result of Mirassol vs Gremio?
Mirassol won 2-1 on July 17, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 16′Bruno SantosMirassol
- 40′EdsonMirassol
- 77′Carlos ViníciusGremio
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab model gave a Mirassol win at 57%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 1-1 — actual score: 2-1.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mirassol have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Gremio have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| May 26, 2026 | Lanus(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| May 23, 2026 | Fluminense(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| May 20, 2026 | Always Ready(away) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| May 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| May 26, 2026 | Atletico Torque(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| May 23, 2026 | Santos(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| May 21, 2026 | Palestino(home) | 2-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| May 17, 2026 | Bahia(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Mirassol win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Gremio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 13, 2025 | Gremio 0-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Mirassol 4-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Mar 2, 2022 | Mirassol 3-2 Gremio | Copa Do Brasil |
How many goals should we expect?
Mirassol score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Gremio score 1.3 and concede 0.7.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 1.1 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Gremio | 1.3 | 0.7 | 9 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mirassol sit 17th in Serie A (24 points from 23 matches) and Gremio sit 15th (25 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 36 | 24 |
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy