Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 25Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, Mlawa
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Mławianka Mława. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Mławianka Mława (1,716) and Jagiellonia II (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mławianka Mława have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Jagiellonia II have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Mławianka Mława win(s), 1 draw(s), 5 Jagiellonia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Mławianka Mława 0-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Jagiellonia II 3-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 2, 2025 | Mławianka Mława 2-3 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Jagiellonia II 2-2 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Mar 9, 2024 | Mławianka Mława 0-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2023 | Jagiellonia II 3-0 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mławianka Mława sit 14th in III Liga - Group 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Jagiellonia II sit 10th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Mławianka Mława.
- Where and when is Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II played?
- Mławianka Mława vs Jagiellonia II is played on April 3, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 3, 2027Wigry SuwałkivsOlimpia Zambrów
- Apr 3, 2027Pelikan ŁowiczvsOlimpia Elbląg
- Apr 3, 2027Lechia T. MazowieckivsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Apr 3, 2027ŁKS Łódź IIvsWisła Płock II
- Apr 3, 2027Warta SieradzvsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Apr 3, 2027ŁomżavsTroszyn
- Apr 3, 2027Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsWidzew II
- Apr 3, 2027WeszlovsSwit