Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 13Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, Mlawa
The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.?
A very open match: only 49 Elo points separate Mławianka Mława (1,716) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (1,666).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mławianka Mława have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Widzew II(away) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Olimpia Elbląg(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swit(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mławianka Mława win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | Mławianka Mława 1-1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2-4 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. on Mar 22, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mławianka Mława sit 14th in III Liga - Group 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. sit 16th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.?
- The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 23% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm..
- Where and when is Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. played?
- Mławianka Mława vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. is played on October 17, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 17, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsWigry Suwałki
- Oct 17, 2026Jagiellonia IIvsSwit
- Oct 17, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsWidzew II
- Oct 17, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsOlimpia Elbląg
- Oct 17, 2026Warta SieradzvsWisła Płock II
- Oct 17, 2026ŁomżavsOlimpia Zambrów
- Oct 17, 2026TroszynvsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Oct 17, 2026WeszlovsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki