Mławianka Mława vs Swit: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, Mlawa
The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Swit. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mławianka Mława vs Swit?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Mławianka Mława (1,714) and Swit (1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mławianka Mława have 8 wins, 1 draws and 6 defeats; Swit have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Łomża(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Widzew II(away) | 0-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(home) | 4-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm.(away) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Mławianka Mława win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Swit win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Swit 1-1 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 30, 2025 | Mławianka Mława 3-4 Swit | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Swit 1-1 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Mławianka Mława 6-0 Swit | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 3, 2024 | Swit 3-0 Mławianka Mława | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Mławianka Mława 2-3 Swit | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Swit vs Mławianka Mława on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mławianka Mława score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Swit score 1.7 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mławianka Mława | 1.8 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Swit | 1.7 | 1.6 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mławianka Mława sit 14th in III Liga - Group 1 (4 points from 5 matches) and Swit sit 8th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Swit | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 8 |
| 14 | Mławianka Mława | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mławianka Mława vs Swit?
- The Footlab model makes Mławianka Mława the favourite at 48%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Swit.
- Where and when is Mławianka Mława vs Swit played?
- Mławianka Mława vs Swit is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion MOSiR Mlawa, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWisła Płock II
- Oct 3, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsWidzew II
- Oct 3, 2026Jagiellonia IIvsTroszyn
- Oct 3, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Oct 3, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Oct 3, 2026Warta SieradzvsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- Oct 3, 2026ŁomżavsOlimpia Elbląg
- Oct 3, 2026WeszlovsOlimpia Zambrów