Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok, Białystok
The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Troszyn. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Jagiellonia II (1,775) and Troszyn (1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jagiellonia II have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Troszyn have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(away) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(home) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(away) | 0-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(home) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Widzew II(away) | 1-5 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Jagiellonia II win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Troszyn win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Jagiellonia II 0-1 Troszyn | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Troszyn 1-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn on May 17, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Troszyn score 1.3 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Troszyn | 1.3 | 1.8 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jagiellonia II sit 10th in III Liga - Group 1 (8 points from 5 matches) and Troszyn sit 17th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn?
- The Footlab model makes Jagiellonia II the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Troszyn.
- Where and when is Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn played?
- Jagiellonia II vs Troszyn is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ośrodek Szkoleniowy Jagiellonii Białystok, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 3, 2026Wigry SuwałkivsWisła Płock II
- Oct 3, 2026Pelikan ŁowiczvsWidzew II
- Oct 3, 2026Lechia T. MazowieckivsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Oct 3, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Oct 3, 2026Mławianka MławavsSwit
- Oct 3, 2026Warta SieradzvsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- Oct 3, 2026ŁomżavsOlimpia Elbląg
- Oct 3, 2026WeszlovsOlimpia Zambrów