Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 11Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, Tomaszów Mazowiecki
The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 68%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm.. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Lechia T. Mazowiecki (1,758) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. (1,666).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(home) | 4-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Łomża(home) | 5-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Widzew II(away) | 1-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Olimpia Zambrów(home) | 2-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Olimpia Elbląg(away) | 2-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Swit(home) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2024 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3-1 Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 3, 2024 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. 2-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. on Nov 24, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki score 2.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Lidzbark Warm. score 1.2 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 1.2 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 5th in III Liga - Group 1 (9 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Lidzbark Warm. sit 16th (1 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm.?
- The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 68%, against 17% for a draw and 16% for Polonia Lidzbark Warm..
- Where and when is Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. played?
- Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Polonia Lidzbark Warm. is played on October 3, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.